Should I intentionally draw in the last round of a Magic tournament?

It depends on your points, the size of the tournament and the cut. If a draw leaves you more likely to make the top 8 than playing the round out does, draw. With a record that is already safe on a win and a draw, or already out of reach, it makes no difference. The calculator compares both for your numbers.

How many points do you need to make the top 8 of an MTG tournament?

A win is worth 3 points, a draw 1 and a loss 0. In the calculator's simulations of a 64-player, 6-round tournament, 15 points (5-1) almost always makes the top 8 and 12 points (4-2) almost never does; in between it comes down to draws and tiebreakers. Larger tournaments with more rounds need a better record. The calculator simulates your own tournament to show the odds.

How does the calculator work?

It plays thousands of Swiss tournaments with players of equal skill, pairing players on the same points and drawing a share of the matches. In every simulation where a player reaches the last round on your points, it plays that round out three ways: a win, an intentional draw and a loss. The share of those players who end in the cut is the chance shown.

Tournament tool

MTG ID calculator

Last round, on the bubble: do you offer the draw or play it out? Enter your record and the size of the tournament and the calculator tells you which one makes the top cut more often.

Matchup matrix

Your tournament

Players Top cut

Your record before the last round

Wins Losses Draws

Wins, losses and draws add up to the rounds already played. The next round is taken as the last one of the Swiss.

Fine tuning

Your chance to win the round, % Matches that end in a draw, %

Your tiebreakers

The answer appears here. It is computed in your browser by simulating thousands of tournaments like yours; nothing you type is sent anywhere.

How to use the result

Read the three bars. They are the chance of making the top cut if you win, if you draw and if you lose the last round. A draw is worth 1 point, a win 3.
Draw when it beats playing. If the draw bar is higher than the playing average shown in the verdict, offering the draw is the better bet. If you are in on a win and on a draw, the choice is yours; if you are out on both, play for fun.
Both of you must be on the same record. An intentional draw needs the other player to agree, and it only helps you both if you are on the same points.
It does not know the real standings. The simulation uses players of equal skill and average tiebreakers. If you can see the standings and your opponents' strength, trust what you see over the percentages, and use the tiebreakers setting to nudge it.
Mind the rules. Intentional draws are allowed in Magic as long as nothing is offered in exchange. Prize splits or bribes are not.

Want your own results behind the decision? Log your rounds on MyDeckStats and the site keeps your record, your best and worst matchups and the cards that decide your games.

Between rounds

Keep every round you play.

MyDeckStats logs your tournament round by round, game by game, and turns it into your record against every deck. Free to start, built for a phone between rounds.

Track your first tournament Log in

Log a round in seconds with score presets A sideboard sheet for each matchup, free Your results next to the field win rates of the format